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外媒:研究称本世纪内珠峰冰川或将完全消失

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月19日 22:37:27
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(  参)(考)(消)(息)(网)(6月)(2日)(报)(道)(
  西)(媒)(称)(,珠)(穆)(朗)(玛)(峰)(所)(在)(的)(喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(地)(区)(正)(面)(临)(急)(剧)(缩)(小)(的)(危)(险)(。如)(果)(本)(世)(纪)(内)(气)(温)(如)(预)(测)(的)(一)(样)(继)(续)(升)(高)(,该)(地)(区)(的)(冰)(川)(将)(消)(失)(殆)(尽)(。
  西)(班)(牙)(《世)(界)(报)(》5月)(31日)(文)(章)(称)(,国)(际)(山)(地)(综)(合)(开)(发)(中)(心)(冰)(川)(水)(文)(专)(家)(约)(瑟)(夫)(·谢)(伊)(指)(出)(,根)(据)(未)(来)(的)(气)(候)(变)(化)(趋)(势)(,喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(地)(区)(的)(冰)(川)(在)(持)(续)(减)(少)(,其)(速)(度)(还)(有)(可)(能)(加)(快)(。国)(际)(山)(地)(综)(合)(开)(发)(中)(心)(的)(研)(究)(结)(果)(近)(日)(刊)(登)(在)(欧)(盟)(地)(球)(科)(学)(《冰)(冻)(圈)(》杂)(志)(上)(。
  文)(章)(说)(,如)(果)(是)(最)(好)(的)(情)(况)(,到)(2100年)(都)(得)(科)(西)(河)(流)(域)(的)(冰)(川)(将)(会)(减)(少)(70%;但)(如)(果)(是)(最)(坏)(情)(况)(,其)(冰)(川)(将)(缩)(小)(99%。谢)(伊)(指)(出)(,“该)(流)(域)(的)(冰)(川)(更)(易)(受)(气)(温)(变)(化)(的)(影)(响)(,没)(有)(人)(能)(事)(先)(预)(知)(”。
  都)(得)(科)(西)(河)(流)(域)(的)(冰)(川)(覆)(盖)(面)(积)(大)(约)(为)(400平)(方)(公)(里)(。研)(究)(人)(员)(依)(据)(过)(去)(20年)(来)(气)(温)(和)(降)(水)(量)(模)(拟)(出)(各)(种)(不)(同)(的)(情)(况)(,并)(预)(测)(了)(气)(温)(和)(降)(水)(量)(是)(如)(何)(与)(二)(氧)(化)(碳)(排)(放)(一)(起)(对)(该)(地)(区)(未)(来)(的)(冰)(川)(消)(融)(速)(度)(造)(成)(影)(响)(的)(。这)(些)(预)(测)(都)(同)(时)(指)(向)(一)(个)(结)(果)(,那)(就)(是)(本)(世)(纪)(将)(会)(越)(来)(越)(热)(。
  对)(二)(氧)(化)(碳)(排)(放)(量)(的)(预)(测)(基)(于)(两)(条)(前)(提)(:其)(一)(是)(各)(国)(在)(这)(方)(面)(采)(取)(行)(动)(,减)(少)(各)(自)(的)(二)(氧)(化)(碳)(排)(放)(量)(;其)(二)(,各)(国)(未)(做)(出)(任)(何)(努)(力)(。正)(因)(为)(如)(此)(研)(究)(结)(果)(中)(才)(出)(现)(了)(70%到)(99%之)(间)(的)(变)(化)(。谢)(伊)(指)(出)(,“即)(便)(各)(国)(从)(现)(在)(开)(始)(采)(取)(措)(施)(,我)(们)(仍)(会)(看)(到)(冰)(川)(在)(逐)(渐)(减)(少)(”。他)(认)(为)(,“目)(前)(尚)(不)(知)(道)(这)(一)(过)(程)(是)(否)(能)(得)(到)(逆)(转)(”。现)(在)(珠)(峰)(还)(有)(没)(有)(解)(冻)(的)(积)(雪)(区)(域)(,这)(是)(因)(为)(这)(里)(是)(全)(球)(海)(拔)(最)(高)(的)(地)(方)(。
  因)(此)(,靠)(近)(珠)(峰)(顶)(峰)(海)(拔)(在)(7000到)(8000米)(的)(洛)(子)(峰)(、努)(布)(策)(峰)(和)(马)(卡)(鲁)(峰)(将)(不)(会)(出)(现)(海)(拔)(5000米)(至)(6000米)(冰)(川)(集)(中)(区)(域)(快)(速)(融)(化)(的)(现)(象)(,后)(者)(将)(只)(在)(冬)(季)(而)(不)(是)(温)(暖)(季)(节)(时)(看)(到)(结)(冰)(。
  科)(学)(家)(小)(组)(还)(得)(出)(了)(一)(个)(结)(论)(,月)(平)(均)(气)(温)(为)(零)(摄)(氏)(度)(的)(低)(海)(拔)(位)(置)(的)(冰)(川)(融)(化)(速)(度)(更)(快)(,这)(是)(因)(为)(喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(山)(地)(区)(的)(雪)(线)(正)(在)(攀)(升)(。“1月)(海)(拔)(3200米)(处)(与)(8月)(5500米)(处)(的)(雪)(线)(是)(不)(同)(的)(。”荷)(兰)(乌)(得)(勒)(支)(大)(学)(研)(究)(员)(瓦)(尔)(特)(·伊)(默)(泽)(尔)(指)(出)(,“冰)(川)(的)(积)(雪)(不)(但)(在)(减)(少)(,而)(且)(在)(最)(温)(暖)(的)(季)(节)(,面)(临)(融)(化)(危)(险)(的)(冰)(川)(面)(积)(超)(过)(了)(90%”。换)(句)(话)(说)(,随)(着)(雪)(线)(的)(上)(升)(,面)(临)(融)(化)(的)(区)(域)(和)(积)(雪)(量)(减)(少)(的)(风)(险)(也)(在)(增)(加)(。
  该)(研)(究)(得)(出)(的)(另)(一)(个)(结)(论)(是)(,冰)(川)(融)(化)(可)(能)(会)(对)(陆)(地)(造)(成)(严)(重)(影)(响)(,因)(为)(冰)(川)(融)(化)(速)(度)(的)(加)(快)(可)(能)(将)(会)(在)(陆)(地)(上)(形)(成)(湖)(波)(,或)(者)(使)(现)(有)(湖)(波)(的)(水)(量)(上)(涨)(。水)(量)(超)(载)(加)(上)(雪)(崩)(和)(地)(震)(的)(风)(险)(,将)(有)(可)(能)(导)(致)(决)(堤)(,改)(变)(河)(流)(的)(流)(量)(,从)(而)(引)(发)(洪)(水)(。这)(将)(给)(当)(地)(社)(会)(、农)(业)(和)(水)(力)(发)(电)(造)(成)(影)(响)(。
  恒)(河)(、印)(度)(河)(和)(布)(拉)(马)(普)(特)(拉)(河)(流)(域)(及)(其)(周)(边)(的)(大)(约)(10亿)(人)(口)(都)(依)(靠)(着)(喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(山)(而)(活)(。喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(山)(脉)(既)(有)(世)(界)(最)(高)(峰)(,也)(是)(世)(界)(上)(仅)(次)(于)(极)(地)(地)(区)(的)(最)(大)(的)(冰)(储)(量)(所)(在)(地)(,其)(淡)(水)(含)(量)(占)(全)(球)(总)(量)(的)(1/3。
  对)(喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(山)(地)(区)(冰)(川)(融)(化)(速)(度)(的)(观)(测)(曾)(引)(发)(过)(争)(议)(。2007年)(,政)(府)(间)(气)(候)(变)(化)(委)(员)(会)(指)(出)(喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(山)(地)(区)(的)(冰)(川)(将)(会)(在)(2035年)(彻)(底)(消)(失)(,这)(一)(错)(误)(的)(结)(论)(后)(来)(迫)(使)(科)(学)(家)(小)(组)(做)(出)(了)(道)(歉)(,并)(进)(行)(了)(修)(正)(。
  两)(年)(前)(米)(兰)(大)(学)(的)(一)(组)(科)(研)(人)(员)(证)(实)(,过)(去)(50年)(来)(珠)(穆)(朗)(玛)(峰)(周)(边)(的)(冰)(川)(覆)(盖)(面)(积)(减)(小)(了)(13%,雪)(线)(较)(1960年)(上)(升)(了)(180米)(。这)(一)(研)(究)(表)(明)(该)(地)(区)(的)(冰)(川)(只)(有)(当)(年)(的)(一)(半)(大)(小)(。
  2012年)(,刊)(登)(在)(《科)(学)(》杂)(志)(上)(的)(一)(项)(研)(究)(成)(果)(揭)(示)(,喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(山)(冰)(川)(面)(积)(正)(在)(缩)(小)(,但)(速)(度)(比)(此)(前)(预)(想)(的)(要)(慢)(,每)(年)(缩)(小)(15到)(20米)(的)(长)(度)(,面)(积)(缩)(小)(0.1%到)(0.6%之)(间)(,冰)(量)(下)(降)(大)(约)(40厘)(米)(。
  这)(一)(次)(谢)(伊)(团)(队)(指)(出)(,他)(们)(的)(研)(究)(成)(果)(只)(是)(冰)(川)(对)(气)(温)(上)(升)(反)(应)(的)(初)(步)(近)(似)(值)(,“应)(该)(谨)(慎)(看)(待)(我)(们)(的)(估)(算)(结)(果)(,因)(为)(这)(里)(还)(存)(在)(相)(当)(大)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。”研)(究)(报)(告)(的)(另)(一)(作)(者)(、法)(国)(冰)(川)(学)(家)(帕)(特)(里)(克)(·瓦)(尼)(翁)(指)(出)(。
  谢)(伊)(也)(指)(出)(,喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(山)(脉)(其)(他)(地)(方)(并)(没)(有)(相)(同)(的)(表)(现)(,可)(能)(是)(因)(为)(这)(些)(地)(区)(没)(有)(他)(们)(分)(析)(的)(地)(区)(那)(样)(对)(气)(温)(的)(影)(响)(如)(此)(敏)(感)(,但)(是)(这)(些)(可)(以)(为)(将)(来)(提)(供)(研)(究)(方)(向)(。
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